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The following question is taken from the June 2013 exam paper.

An additive time series has the following trend and seasonal variations:

Trend Y=4,000 + 6X where Y= sales in units

X is the number of quarters, with the first quarter of 2014 being 1, the second quarter of 2014 being 2 etc. Seasonal variation

Quarter 1 2 3 4

Quarterly variation (units) -4 -2 +1 +5

What is the forecast sales volume for the fourth quarter of 2015?

A

4,029

B

4,043

C

4,048

D

4,053

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Chapter14Forecasting

The correct answer is D. This is calculated by firstly computing the trend for fourth quarter of 2015 (Y = 4,000 + 6 x 8 = 4,048) and then adding a seasonal adjustment of 5, to give forecast sales of 4,053.

The most popular choice was alternative C. This indicates that many candidates were able to calculate the trend but failed to apply the seasonal adjustment. Distracters (the incorrect answers to objective test questions) are often based upon partially complete calculations. Candidates are advised not to stop thinking as soon as they generate a number that corresponds with one of the options offered. A good way of avoiding this trap is not to look at the answers until you are satisfied that you have fully completed your calculation.

Answer A used a value of 4 for period 4 of 2015 and generated the wrong trend figure, but then correctly processed the seasonal adjustment.

Finally a minority of candidates selected answer B, indicating that they could correctly calculate trend but subtracted rather than added the seasonal adjustment.

多做几道

Which of the following statements about management accounting information is/are true?

(i) They must be stated in purely monetary terms.

(ii) Limited companies must, by law, prepare management accounts.

(iii) They serve as a future planning tool and are not used as an historical record.

A

(i), (ii) and (iii)

B

(i) and (ii)

C

(ii) only

D

None of the statements is true

Which of the following statements is/are correct?

(i) A management control system is a term used to describe the hardware and software used to drive a database system which produces information outputs that are easily assimilated by management.

(ii) An objective is a course of action that an organisation might pursue in order to achieve its strategy.

(iii) Information is data that has been processed into a form meaningful to the recipient.

A

(i), (ii) and (iii)

B

(i) and (iii)

C

(ii) and (iii)

D

(iii) only

Good information should have certain qualities. Which of the following are qualities of good information?(i) Complete(ii) Extensive(iii) Relevant(iv) Accurate

A

(i), (ii) and (iii)

B

(i), (iii) and (iv)

C

(ii) and (iv)

D

All of them

Monthly variance reports are an example of which one of the following types of management information?

A

Tactical

B

Strategic

C

Non-financial

D

Operational

Which of the following statements is/are correct?

(i) Information for decision-making should incorporate uncertainty in some way

(ii) The data used to prepare financial accounts and management accounts are the

A

(i) is true and (ii) is false

B

(ii) is true and (i) is false

C

Both are true

D

Both are false

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